Loved your work as always - as a noob analyst looking to ramp up on this company - how do you size the impact of the INTC blowup on 18A? Is it the kind of thing that once it happens, management can just take all revenue out of guide and reset, or can there be unknown further bumps along the way?
I stumbled upon this masterpiece a week ago and after reading it thoroughly went and did my own research. Afterwards I decided to go all in on this stock, and now I'm looking at a pre market jump of INTC (also invested) and SNPS and so far it feels like one of the biggest wins ever. Usually I feel nothing towards people on the internet but whoever wrote this piece deserves a holy life. Shalom.
I hadnt thought about it that way, but Trump owning 10% of Intel probably does get it a lot of indirect leverage. Wonder if it'll used for anything other than fucking over partners like this.
The only way for Intel Foundry attracting third party customers for its 14 Angstrom node is to demonstrate that their 18 Angstrom node is viable. Meaning they manage Panther Lake shipping in volume before Q1 2026 and Tiles for Xeons taping out ASAP. Those Synopsis contracts were indeed useless, and just cost Intel money. Absent a proof of concept for the "Angstrom" nodes in the form of shipping product (Panther Lake), no fabless customer would just sign with Intel Foundry because of "trust us". TSMC gets orders for their bleeding edge node because they have a great track record delivering on time and within spec. Neither Intel nor Samsung Foundry have that track record, at least not recently.
Regarding a bounce in the Synopsis share price: I think the big unknown is what (if any) business Synopsis will get from Chinese chip makers in the coming quarters.
Of course I don't know what @Irrational Analysis thinks about orcl, but that enormous jump based on orders from Open AI almost screams uncertainty and risk (IMHO). Open AI has a fantasticly high capital burn rate, and - AFAIK - no clear concept exactly how to make enough money to pay back their investors. Which means that payment for those contracts with Oracle are subject to Sam Altman's continuing ability to talk investors into sinking many more billions in Open AI.
The actual quote is -
βThe time to buy is when there's blood in the streets, even if the blood is your own.β β Baron Rothschild.
Perhaps it will come to that π
It did when it comes to $INTC for me a while ago. I quoted exactly that on my twitter feed. Too bad no time to update it now.
Loved your work as always - as a noob analyst looking to ramp up on this company - how do you size the impact of the INTC blowup on 18A? Is it the kind of thing that once it happens, management can just take all revenue out of guide and reset, or can there be unknown further bumps along the way?
I stumbled upon this masterpiece a week ago and after reading it thoroughly went and did my own research. Afterwards I decided to go all in on this stock, and now I'm looking at a pre market jump of INTC (also invested) and SNPS and so far it feels like one of the biggest wins ever. Usually I feel nothing towards people on the internet but whoever wrote this piece deserves a holy life. Shalom.
Yes . This bloke is really good . He deserves a good life for writing this . Add extra credit for his sarcasm and humor z
So I as οΌ
I hadnt thought about it that way, but Trump owning 10% of Intel probably does get it a lot of indirect leverage. Wonder if it'll used for anything other than fucking over partners like this.
The only way for Intel Foundry attracting third party customers for its 14 Angstrom node is to demonstrate that their 18 Angstrom node is viable. Meaning they manage Panther Lake shipping in volume before Q1 2026 and Tiles for Xeons taping out ASAP. Those Synopsis contracts were indeed useless, and just cost Intel money. Absent a proof of concept for the "Angstrom" nodes in the form of shipping product (Panther Lake), no fabless customer would just sign with Intel Foundry because of "trust us". TSMC gets orders for their bleeding edge node because they have a great track record delivering on time and within spec. Neither Intel nor Samsung Foundry have that track record, at least not recently.
Regarding a bounce in the Synopsis share price: I think the big unknown is what (if any) business Synopsis will get from Chinese chip makers in the coming quarters.
What do you think about 18A-P? Same story as 18A?
Are you going to short orcl π ?
Of course I don't know what @Irrational Analysis thinks about orcl, but that enormous jump based on orders from Open AI almost screams uncertainty and risk (IMHO). Open AI has a fantasticly high capital burn rate, and - AFAIK - no clear concept exactly how to make enough money to pay back their investors. Which means that payment for those contracts with Oracle are subject to Sam Altman's continuing ability to talk investors into sinking many more billions in Open AI.
I agree. Where would OpenAI even get the money? It doesnt have revenue, only capital burn.
I agree. Where would OpenAI even get the money? It doesnt have revenue, only capital burn.