Funny you say this. Give or take around10 years ago I invested in about a dozen semi stocks (including $MU), based on what I thought were good prospects for them going forward. I foolishly sold a few of them completely (looking at you $AVGO, $TSM and $ARMH). Some I bought back during opportune times ($TSM). Sorry anyway, where am I going with this? Other than the $NVDA and $AMD big winners, guess which one was third best? Yes, $MU of all the things.
The thing with memory is that they get beaten down like crazy at times, so "Mr. Market" gives you the opportunity to buy them real cheap. Try checking returns from any of the lows for $MU and it always beats $SMH. E.g. From start 2013 (not even the exact bottom) returns rarely dips below $SMH. Memory may be a commodity but plenty of money is made in commodities. Strategically Micron is the only one based in the US with some production within the US so not easily threatened by nations that don't share our values. Logic fabs are not enough. You need memory and NAND fabs in the US as well. Micron will never be allowed to die.
Me, I'm happy to keep holding my $MU shares bought cheap and might even buy during a future bust. My philosophy has changed, and I now follow the "Coffee Can Portfolio" like approach. Also see the excellent book 100 baggers by Chris Mayer.
You have nerves of steel lol. Congrats. Timing cycles is not for me. Really bad at it. Agree that Micron is very important strategically. The problem is the other two memory companies are family/Chaobol businesses that may behave erratically.
CAMT is basically HBM capex investment vehicle but advanced logic packaging becomes more important as time goes on so feels safer.
The nerves are definitely something cultivated. As Peter Lynch said - "The most important organ in investing is the stomach" 🙂
I agree that the two Chaebols are a thorn in the side, but I figure if they were able to survive the Japanese DRAMurai cartel dumping in the 80s, they can surely deal with the Koreans when the US govt is on their side these days.
Ironically enough, even though Lynch famously shied away from technology as he didn't understand all the jargon -
He specifically mentioned about Micron the little-known fact in his book that Fidelity was involved in bailing them out in the 80s against the Japanese -
Lynch is a bit of an investing hero of mine as you can see in my twitter posts. The entire unedited version of the video is worth a watch for his great delivery and humor. His books have the same understated humor in them.
Humor in investing is rare. Another reason I love your blog. Just hope you don't have young kids asking what is Elmo doing there? 😛
Funny you say this. Give or take around10 years ago I invested in about a dozen semi stocks (including $MU), based on what I thought were good prospects for them going forward. I foolishly sold a few of them completely (looking at you $AVGO, $TSM and $ARMH). Some I bought back during opportune times ($TSM). Sorry anyway, where am I going with this? Other than the $NVDA and $AMD big winners, guess which one was third best? Yes, $MU of all the things.
The thing with memory is that they get beaten down like crazy at times, so "Mr. Market" gives you the opportunity to buy them real cheap. Try checking returns from any of the lows for $MU and it always beats $SMH. E.g. From start 2013 (not even the exact bottom) returns rarely dips below $SMH. Memory may be a commodity but plenty of money is made in commodities. Strategically Micron is the only one based in the US with some production within the US so not easily threatened by nations that don't share our values. Logic fabs are not enough. You need memory and NAND fabs in the US as well. Micron will never be allowed to die.
Me, I'm happy to keep holding my $MU shares bought cheap and might even buy during a future bust. My philosophy has changed, and I now follow the "Coffee Can Portfolio" like approach. Also see the excellent book 100 baggers by Chris Mayer.
You have nerves of steel lol. Congrats. Timing cycles is not for me. Really bad at it. Agree that Micron is very important strategically. The problem is the other two memory companies are family/Chaobol businesses that may behave erratically.
CAMT is basically HBM capex investment vehicle but advanced logic packaging becomes more important as time goes on so feels safer.
The nerves are definitely something cultivated. As Peter Lynch said - "The most important organ in investing is the stomach" 🙂
I agree that the two Chaebols are a thorn in the side, but I figure if they were able to survive the Japanese DRAMurai cartel dumping in the 80s, they can surely deal with the Koreans when the US govt is on their side these days.
Ironically enough, even though Lynch famously shied away from technology as he didn't understand all the jargon -
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rf_f8GV0yYM&t=120s&ab_channel=InvestorTalk
He specifically mentioned about Micron the little-known fact in his book that Fidelity was involved in bailing them out in the 80s against the Japanese -
https://twitter.com/OutspokenGeek/status/1718109873089490969
Lynch is a bit of an investing hero of mine as you can see in my twitter posts. The entire unedited version of the video is worth a watch for his great delivery and humor. His books have the same understated humor in them.
Humor in investing is rare. Another reason I love your blog. Just hope you don't have young kids asking what is Elmo doing there? 😛
Time to confirmation bias my way into some WDC calls
You will like the NAND post once it is finished lol.