IDM will fail even if management is competent. Underlying causes are lack of scale for fabs with just one customer, too much variability with just one customer, too little diversity in learning future processes with just one customer, and an immense mismatch in the financial structure of the two different businesses which attract different investors and practices. Increasingly disparate staff skills and career paths. It is just one big "why?" after another. The best part of your AMD warm-up was highlighting the crucial role of the WSA.
Intel's plan was made wobbly by the damage caused by 5 years of mishandling the 10/7nm disaster, in a way which weakened the design side too. But they were recovering and arguably would have had enough to divide up with AMD this year .. except for AI and Nvidia train running through the middle and sucking up all the customer investment and engineering talent focus, putting the traditional CPU business in the doldrums. Hey, sucks to be building any DC CPU when AI is the hotness.
AMD of course seems to be responding to the AI challenge better, despite Intel having done some of the right things on packaging and chiplets. And then AMD in the CPU doldrums can still feel good about growing from 5% to 25% of a yawn, while Intel sees only down.
I sure hope IFS can stand on its own before the vultures start ripping. If so, then both halves will probably emerge standing, just different.
While I agree with the article, I wonder if Intel just needs more time for gen AI revenue. Even AMD's revenue for genAI is pathetic compared to NVDA. I think competitive analysis of their actual aI solution would reveal that. But I never heard of Intel's great GPU/NPU paid solutions. (and lack of software for AI)
Gaudi is ok, Ponte Vecchio flopped badly, and Falcon Shores has been delayed until late 2025. I will go over the GPU roadmap and AXG history in a future post.
Gaudi's modest success is because Habana (acquired startup) was largely allowed to operate independently. Everything Raja Koduri touched disintegrated into failure which is why Pate Genslinger fired him. Killing Rialto Bridge was a good move but delaying Falcon Shores was likely driven by financial constraints and is quite unfortunate.
IDM will fail even if management is competent. Underlying causes are lack of scale for fabs with just one customer, too much variability with just one customer, too little diversity in learning future processes with just one customer, and an immense mismatch in the financial structure of the two different businesses which attract different investors and practices. Increasingly disparate staff skills and career paths. It is just one big "why?" after another. The best part of your AMD warm-up was highlighting the crucial role of the WSA.
Intel's plan was made wobbly by the damage caused by 5 years of mishandling the 10/7nm disaster, in a way which weakened the design side too. But they were recovering and arguably would have had enough to divide up with AMD this year .. except for AI and Nvidia train running through the middle and sucking up all the customer investment and engineering talent focus, putting the traditional CPU business in the doldrums. Hey, sucks to be building any DC CPU when AI is the hotness.
AMD of course seems to be responding to the AI challenge better, despite Intel having done some of the right things on packaging and chiplets. And then AMD in the CPU doldrums can still feel good about growing from 5% to 25% of a yawn, while Intel sees only down.
I sure hope IFS can stand on its own before the vultures start ripping. If so, then both halves will probably emerge standing, just different.
So when do the activists get involved and break up the company? Is the sum of the parts greater than the whole?
I think they will start showing up in 2025-ish.
While I agree with the article, I wonder if Intel just needs more time for gen AI revenue. Even AMD's revenue for genAI is pathetic compared to NVDA. I think competitive analysis of their actual aI solution would reveal that. But I never heard of Intel's great GPU/NPU paid solutions. (and lack of software for AI)
Gaudi is ok, Ponte Vecchio flopped badly, and Falcon Shores has been delayed until late 2025. I will go over the GPU roadmap and AXG history in a future post.
Gaudi's modest success is because Habana (acquired startup) was largely allowed to operate independently. Everything Raja Koduri touched disintegrated into failure which is why Pate Genslinger fired him. Killing Rialto Bridge was a good move but delaying Falcon Shores was likely driven by financial constraints and is quite unfortunate.