DISCLOSURE: I am an Intel shareholder now and have had AMD and Intel stock before. I am NOT A FINANCIAL ADVISOR, I only studied CompSci.
Qualcomm hiring someone who refused to move to chiplets while the house was on fire, doesn't really bode well for a 3rd attempt. That Sapphire Rapids he has in hand wasn't exactly a star product either (maybe second worst to Ice Lake SP).
I would say that both yours and the bankers are extreme scenarios. AMD is starting to push premium markets and negleting mainstream chips. That is not how they will grab significant marketshare, but they are pushed to do so because the share price commends so much premium.
What I have recently been wondering about this, is that AMD is putting a lot of cutting edge chips on Chinese junk brand mini-PCs. The latest one won't even be out for a while. This is not common, they were usually stuck with 2y+ old products.
To me this is a pretty clear indication that both datacenter and laptop demand is quite low compared to other years, that AMD doesn't know what to do with pre-ordered wafers.
Maybe it is just an internal miscalculation thing, but market share gain doesn't seem to be going accross the board.
I was actually very surprised by the latest Intel earnings and missed on the bump post-earnings - as I was not expecting good things for the sector, generally. DRAM demand was bad and continues to be.
But yet, despite positive reactions, prices have again dropped to last year's lows. It is a very volatile stock and anyone touching it needs to keep that in mind.
I am a bit amazed by the low sales figures for Lunar Lake laptops/2-in-1s. At least up to now, it's more than competitive with Snapdragon Elite notebooks, and probably better for low power use than the Ryzen AI Strix APUs (those are superior for more heavy lifting).
But, I wholeheartedly agree that Intel needs to dump most of its board, and pronto. This situation reminds me of children in the backseat screaming "are we there yet?", and then successfully reaching for the steering wheel. Turning a company like Intel around is like reversing the direction of a supertanker; it takes a while.
Lastly, and more in response to one of your previous posts: yes, Bartlett Lake (Raptor Lake "new and improved") is on an older node (Intel 7), but it a. Is fabbed on equipment that Intel has already depreciated, b. keeps the fabs in AZ running, c. Has decent performance, even at PL1 of 65 W and d. could be a good offering for lower-end desktops and laptops, if Intel is smart and sells Bartlett Lake cheap enough.
Good point on the Intel 7 depreciation. Should have mentioned this. I am also surprised by Lunar Lake low sales. It's good... almost as if Intel does not want to dilute margins...
If AMD's going to eat into Intel's market share so much, when would that reflect in the stock price? I agree that its Zen5 products > Arrow Lake and latest Xeon btw
The laptop marketshare seems a bit too aggressive, intel for whatever reasons have very good relations with laptop makers, and AMD has failed again and again to supply that market with enough chips. Also if you follow the CES coverage once again intel dominates the laptops, its almost exclusively arrow lake for high performance gaming laptops, even the x3d chip which is most likely going to be the best gaming chip by a mile isn't going into 5090 laptops and is stuck at a 5070ti laptop. On the server side they are the most competitive they have been in ages so they may retain share better than expected and they are still the default for head nodes in AI servers. But how much faith can anyone have in their server roadmap really, pat getting fired just like that is not a good sign.
That we are focusing on products thing is soo stupid as well, as if intel didn't have the resources to focus on both products and IDM, as if they didn't have much more resources than their competitors. what does that even mean we will focus on products, someone is going to come into the boardroom and say what if our products weren't shit, and everyone goes wow we never thought of that.
it would be cool if you recorded an audio version of your posts (or AI could do it for you?) I do a lot of walking in the afternoons, and could listen.
DISCLOSURE: I am an Intel shareholder now and have had AMD and Intel stock before. I am NOT A FINANCIAL ADVISOR, I only studied CompSci.
Qualcomm hiring someone who refused to move to chiplets while the house was on fire, doesn't really bode well for a 3rd attempt. That Sapphire Rapids he has in hand wasn't exactly a star product either (maybe second worst to Ice Lake SP).
I would say that both yours and the bankers are extreme scenarios. AMD is starting to push premium markets and negleting mainstream chips. That is not how they will grab significant marketshare, but they are pushed to do so because the share price commends so much premium.
What I have recently been wondering about this, is that AMD is putting a lot of cutting edge chips on Chinese junk brand mini-PCs. The latest one won't even be out for a while. This is not common, they were usually stuck with 2y+ old products.
To me this is a pretty clear indication that both datacenter and laptop demand is quite low compared to other years, that AMD doesn't know what to do with pre-ordered wafers.
Maybe it is just an internal miscalculation thing, but market share gain doesn't seem to be going accross the board.
I was actually very surprised by the latest Intel earnings and missed on the bump post-earnings - as I was not expecting good things for the sector, generally. DRAM demand was bad and continues to be.
But yet, despite positive reactions, prices have again dropped to last year's lows. It is a very volatile stock and anyone touching it needs to keep that in mind.
I am a bit amazed by the low sales figures for Lunar Lake laptops/2-in-1s. At least up to now, it's more than competitive with Snapdragon Elite notebooks, and probably better for low power use than the Ryzen AI Strix APUs (those are superior for more heavy lifting).
But, I wholeheartedly agree that Intel needs to dump most of its board, and pronto. This situation reminds me of children in the backseat screaming "are we there yet?", and then successfully reaching for the steering wheel. Turning a company like Intel around is like reversing the direction of a supertanker; it takes a while.
Lastly, and more in response to one of your previous posts: yes, Bartlett Lake (Raptor Lake "new and improved") is on an older node (Intel 7), but it a. Is fabbed on equipment that Intel has already depreciated, b. keeps the fabs in AZ running, c. Has decent performance, even at PL1 of 65 W and d. could be a good offering for lower-end desktops and laptops, if Intel is smart and sells Bartlett Lake cheap enough.
Good point on the Intel 7 depreciation. Should have mentioned this. I am also surprised by Lunar Lake low sales. It's good... almost as if Intel does not want to dilute margins...
I instantly clicked haha
Love the thumbnail
Thank you I am proud of this one. Shoutout to the free Dall-E 3 on Bing.
If AMD's going to eat into Intel's market share so much, when would that reflect in the stock price? I agree that its Zen5 products > Arrow Lake and latest Xeon btw
Yes. I think Intel stock could hit $15-17/share in the short term.
The laptop marketshare seems a bit too aggressive, intel for whatever reasons have very good relations with laptop makers, and AMD has failed again and again to supply that market with enough chips. Also if you follow the CES coverage once again intel dominates the laptops, its almost exclusively arrow lake for high performance gaming laptops, even the x3d chip which is most likely going to be the best gaming chip by a mile isn't going into 5090 laptops and is stuck at a 5070ti laptop. On the server side they are the most competitive they have been in ages so they may retain share better than expected and they are still the default for head nodes in AI servers. But how much faith can anyone have in their server roadmap really, pat getting fired just like that is not a good sign.
That we are focusing on products thing is soo stupid as well, as if intel didn't have the resources to focus on both products and IDM, as if they didn't have much more resources than their competitors. what does that even mean we will focus on products, someone is going to come into the boardroom and say what if our products weren't shit, and everyone goes wow we never thought of that.
it would be cool if you recorded an audio version of your posts (or AI could do it for you?) I do a lot of walking in the afternoons, and could listen.
The posts are graph and image heavy, but you can use the built-in TTS on the substack mobile app to listen to the text parts.