9 Comments
Nov 1·edited Nov 1Liked by Irrational Analysis

Legacy fab can buy equipment that the advanced fab can not? I don't think you need to be an expert on loopholes to see that this was going to be exploited one way or another.

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Nov 1Liked by Irrational Analysis

awesome piece as always. curious though, why do you think Apple internal 5G = more RFFE content for AVGO?

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Qualcomm bundles RFFE with their modem. I see the RFFE content QCOM is about to lose (in addition to modem/baseband) as AVGO gain mostly.

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Right, QCOM losing RFFE content makes complete sense. But that doesn't really impact QRVO right?

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Nov 1·edited Nov 1Liked by Irrational Analysis

I am very confused regarding the future of x86 in laptops after the release of Qualcomm Oryon V2 chips and alliance of Nvidia and MediaTek to make an ARM chip for Windows, may be Nvidia is preparing for a future where ARM dominates. Plus, the entire AI and HPC compute is shifting purely from CPUs to custom accelerators. Do you think x86 is on the path of obsolesce? If this is true, AMD's future doesn't look bright, but Intel can hedge the decline of x86 to Intel Foundry plus Intel also has Mobileye but whether it will be successful or not that's a different thing.

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AMD has Xilinx FPGA and DC GPU. Intel Foundry is like H2 2026 and 2027 real revenue. Yes, I do think x86 is in a position of weakness. The advisory committee exists out of fear.

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My take is different. Yes, x86 is the weakest it has been maybe in 30-40 years,

but for the kind of extreme out of order CPU cores that are in use these days, microarchitecture matters more than ISA. Yes, a clean ISA is nice but it's fine x86 manages with its warts. In fact, it's great that there is finally choice and competition for PC users. Intel didn't field competitive designs till AMD caught up and now ARM is forcing both of them to become better at perf/power but x86 is not going to disappear or die. On a similar like process mode there is no reason why AMD or Intel should be significantly behind. BTW when AMD could not manage more than about 20% client CPU share with better designs, it is quite unlikely that ARM will take a majority share with a different ISA. There isn't even a pure perf competitive ARM server yet. AMD won't make as much money with x86, but they have a huge market waiting in DC GPUs.

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Nov 1Liked by Irrational Analysis

It’s because they are at 33-37% Q2 they were taking underutilization charges. They didn’t have to take them in q3 because the wrote down the equipment and “poth” they have no more underutilization charges. If they didn’t do the 3bn write down the margins would be were you expected. Pat is determined. Also I think he probably kitchen sinked the guide in q2 expecting to completely beat it but then only just

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Nov 1Liked by Irrational Analysis

*it’s because they were at 33-37% gm in q3, in q2 they were taking underutilization charges….

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