I wrote in my last Substack post that nobody needs any higher speeds. Most mobile features, even mid range, is sufficient for 98% of consumers. supporting all these features that nobody will notice only drives up cost.
Apple won’t reduce the phone cost. They will increase it, build mediocre modems that work well enough and pocket the extra cash.
Also they are willing to dump billions of dollars in modem/WiFi/Bluetooth development. By the time we get to C3(Prometheus) it’ll be good enough for nearly every user. And by that point they could use it in all of their devices(MacBooks, iPads, Apple Watches, Vision Pro 2 or 3). Modem development seems to be of critical importance to them so there’s probably no end to how much they’ll invest to be completely independent of Qualcomm.
Trump trying to kill Intel to 0.5 PB so Elon can swoop in and buy it for $60b. Intel is still the only hope at US leading edge. Tsmc leading edge will never leave Taiwan. Intel still has value to America. They just need the inmates to leave the asylum.
Slightly OT, but I wonder if you have heard anything about the expected lifting of South Korea's ban against trading options and other futures? That was supposed to be lifted sometimes in March 2025. It is now March 2025. Do you or anyone else here have any updates? Thanks!
Apple lagging in modem technology and saying it doesn't matter much, sounds similar to the time when Apple moved to 64-bit processor and rest of the industry said it doesn't matter much as there are applications built for 64-bit !
Apple was leading in that case, now it is lagging behind. Bit of role reversal !
The only markets in which Apple may still have to use Qualcomm's mmWave 5G Modems are a. for Verizon in the US (large investment in mmWave, they won't easily just sideline that) and b. the Japanese markets. Telcos such as NTT invested heavily in mmWave 5G, and, just like Verizon here in the US, will want to recoup those investments.
Which leaves over 90% of the 5G market that couldn't bothered, and is fine with phones having sub-6 GHz 5G coverage.
Even 4K Video can comfortably be sent at the bandwidths that just good LTE can already provide. mmWave 5G will be much more of a must-have for high speed i fixed wireless internet in lieu of Gbit FTTH or even FTTB. However, those modems have much more relaxed power envelopes of those modems/routers (plug-in power from the wall outlets). The other , major issue in fixed wireless internet is the need for really fast fiber optic back haul. That needs to be far better than what is commonly used for 5G mobile cells/base stations.
I think the issue you need to send and receive, and have real-time requirement, so you need quite a bit of overhead to avoid any jittering in the video.
I wrote in my last Substack post that nobody needs any higher speeds. Most mobile features, even mid range, is sufficient for 98% of consumers. supporting all these features that nobody will notice only drives up cost.
Apple won’t reduce the phone cost. They will increase it, build mediocre modems that work well enough and pocket the extra cash.
Also they are willing to dump billions of dollars in modem/WiFi/Bluetooth development. By the time we get to C3(Prometheus) it’ll be good enough for nearly every user. And by that point they could use it in all of their devices(MacBooks, iPads, Apple Watches, Vision Pro 2 or 3). Modem development seems to be of critical importance to them so there’s probably no end to how much they’ll invest to be completely independent of Qualcomm.
If Apple has one production ready modem, I don’t see any way they can’t improve upon them and make more, better ones.
CC stated at the presentation with Trump that the 100b was in addition to the 65b
Somehow you pumped SiTime, I guess you have more influence than I thought.
I think it’s a bad idea to short a company on a gut feeling. I know you’re a Qualcomm hater but maybe just step back and move on.
I imagine the US gov will force a split between TSMC's Taiwan and US operations somewhere down the line under the pretence of "national security".
Trump trying to kill Intel to 0.5 PB so Elon can swoop in and buy it for $60b. Intel is still the only hope at US leading edge. Tsmc leading edge will never leave Taiwan. Intel still has value to America. They just need the inmates to leave the asylum.
There had been increasing calls for the board of intc to step down… but they seems to be able survive all these criticisms 🤨
Slightly OT, but I wonder if you have heard anything about the expected lifting of South Korea's ban against trading options and other futures? That was supposed to be lifted sometimes in March 2025. It is now March 2025. Do you or anyone else here have any updates? Thanks!
Apple lagging in modem technology and saying it doesn't matter much, sounds similar to the time when Apple moved to 64-bit processor and rest of the industry said it doesn't matter much as there are applications built for 64-bit !
Apple was leading in that case, now it is lagging behind. Bit of role reversal !
The only markets in which Apple may still have to use Qualcomm's mmWave 5G Modems are a. for Verizon in the US (large investment in mmWave, they won't easily just sideline that) and b. the Japanese markets. Telcos such as NTT invested heavily in mmWave 5G, and, just like Verizon here in the US, will want to recoup those investments.
Which leaves over 90% of the 5G market that couldn't bothered, and is fine with phones having sub-6 GHz 5G coverage.
What about video calls? Those are pretty common.
Even 4K Video can comfortably be sent at the bandwidths that just good LTE can already provide. mmWave 5G will be much more of a must-have for high speed i fixed wireless internet in lieu of Gbit FTTH or even FTTB. However, those modems have much more relaxed power envelopes of those modems/routers (plug-in power from the wall outlets). The other , major issue in fixed wireless internet is the need for really fast fiber optic back haul. That needs to be far better than what is commonly used for 5G mobile cells/base stations.
I think the issue you need to send and receive, and have real-time requirement, so you need quite a bit of overhead to avoid any jittering in the video.
I mean, I see it often in video calls today.