Q1 2026 Consolidated Holdings and Performance
Twas the night before possible ground invasion...
Irrational Analysis is heavily invested in the semiconductor industry.
Positions will change over time and are regularly updated.
Opinions are authors own and do not represent past, present, and/or future employers.
All content published on this newsletter is based on public information and independent research conducted since 2011.
This newsletter is not financial advice and readers should always do their own research before investing in any security.
Feel free to contact me via email at: irrational_analysis@proton.me
I don’t have my March monthly account statement so here is a CSV of all YTD trading records as a compromise.
Re-built my manually updated spreadsheet to account properly for currency conversions.
Still waiting of tax refund from 2025. I massively over-paid on accident in Q4 pre-pay.
Either Trump tanks the market tonight and those SMH 370 strike puts print, in which case I massively re-gross.
Or he TACO’s so hard, lasting peace in the middle east. In which case also massively re-gross.
If Gavin Baker actually bottom ticked the market I am going to be livid.
Also, no tax pre-pay for Q1 2026. I learn from the best.
Good luck out there. I suck at macro as you can see.
At least I am still (barely) meeting goal of outperforming SMH 0.00%↑ by at least 30%.
Yesterday was not fun. Very out of position.
Thank you for this. A few comments: 1) You can toss your positions in chatgpt (or your favorite LLM) and consolidate your holdings in a few min. 2) As a recovering macro guy, I've realized there were only two calls that mattered over the past decade plus: long equities and short bonds (borrowing is implicitly short bonds). Everything else has been a distraction. 3) The most reliable hedges are the most expensive, but the cheapest hedges are the least reliable. 4) There's some interesting activist movement in JP semi names recently, e.g. Musashi Seimitsu. They should clearly spin off the supercapacitor business (or sell the auto segment to Honda, who's 50% of their revs). This would be a big unlock considering it's trading at less than 1x revs. 5) Curious about the BE trades, is there a catalyst/event you're reacting to or looking for?
No Furukawa? Did you sell that from your long portfolio? I could’ve sworn it was in there before