But everyone knows about lng shortage. Like every grandma in Germany even. It is in the press all over the place. It went up already, yes sure it can still. But this is not a "I know more than others" move but more of a gamble. Except you can back it by numbers why it should go up so much more.
Have a look at Equinor.. $EQNR. They took market share from Russia since the onset of the Ukraine conflict, and now supply up to 30% of Europe's total gas needs.. Their production capacity is 100% utilized and are fully sold out. Most importantly, they don't need ships to transport gas. Norway as a whole (mostly Equinor anyway) delivers around 95% of its natural gas to Europe through a subsea pipeline system and these pipelines serve as a critical, long-term supply source for North-West Europe, Germany, the UK, Poland (via the Baltic Pipe), and the Czech Republic
I like Cheniere too but you don't know when/whether the US may cap exports for their own domestic use.. or charge a windfall tax
LNG does most of their biz through long term agreements LTA going out 10-15 yrs. At most they have a limited 10% of so open to spot pricing. Not the way to play it... but the stock can do up lol bc of the ticker. Anyone here wants to play it, ping me. Dutch TTF futures are the best direct exposure for the true degens.
It doesn’t get royalties based on LNG price unfortunately but based on ships using its tech. But we’d assume more ships from US to Europe needed which would increase their revenue. Prob a long term investment rather than a short term trade.
already bought $LNG. South Korea has reseller rights, they'll use it for themselves. China also I believe does too. Taiwan needs LNG massively as well..both really needed for SEMIs. South Korea has a contract with Chernire $lng.
Also the tariffs are structured to penalize countries running large trade surpluses with the U.S., they implicitly incentivize these nations to balance trade by importing U.S. energy. US gas is competitive even after shipping costs and switching costs are typically low especially if it's a sovereign buyer
If Taiwan would run low on LNG, TSMC's fabs won't have assured power, which they need a lot of. If anyone here knows if TSMC operates it's own power plants, please let us know! Regardless, this current crisis means that prices for semiconductors will go up even more than they were already.
Issue for TSMC and other fabs is Helium. Lots of helium for making chips isn’t getting out of the strait. Not sure if there’s a ready alternative supplier from non-gulf region but that could be an interesting play if the situation doesn’t resolve itself soon.
At least theoretically, TSMC could be supplied with Helium by the US, which is still one of the major producers of this noble gas. What follows is complete speculation, I have no sources for it, but I wouldn't be surprised if that subject came up in TSMC’s recent conversations with Trump and his administration.
They can get helium. It's not expensive either. Neon gas is another one...it's actually not simple at all, nothing ever is. The risk is that we fall into a global recession due to energy shortages for various reasons impacting other countries. Seems like Asia could be brutally impacted which can trickle back elsewhere into other businesses that are dependent on them for goods. How's a SMB supposed to sell goods if Asian countries can't make them due to energy shortages? Comes back home to everyone everywhere.
But everyone knows about lng shortage. Like every grandma in Germany even. It is in the press all over the place. It went up already, yes sure it can still. But this is not a "I know more than others" move but more of a gamble. Except you can back it by numbers why it should go up so much more.
Have a look at Equinor.. $EQNR. They took market share from Russia since the onset of the Ukraine conflict, and now supply up to 30% of Europe's total gas needs.. Their production capacity is 100% utilized and are fully sold out. Most importantly, they don't need ships to transport gas. Norway as a whole (mostly Equinor anyway) delivers around 95% of its natural gas to Europe through a subsea pipeline system and these pipelines serve as a critical, long-term supply source for North-West Europe, Germany, the UK, Poland (via the Baltic Pipe), and the Czech Republic
I like Cheniere too but you don't know when/whether the US may cap exports for their own domestic use.. or charge a windfall tax
LNG does most of their biz through long term agreements LTA going out 10-15 yrs. At most they have a limited 10% of so open to spot pricing. Not the way to play it... but the stock can do up lol bc of the ticker. Anyone here wants to play it, ping me. Dutch TTF futures are the best direct exposure for the true degens.
You can also look at the tech behind transporting LNG which is owned by GTT.PA who get royalties for the tech used in ships.
It doesn’t get royalties based on LNG price unfortunately but based on ships using its tech. But we’d assume more ships from US to Europe needed which would increase their revenue. Prob a long term investment rather than a short term trade.
Why not VG? more beta!
already bought $LNG. South Korea has reseller rights, they'll use it for themselves. China also I believe does too. Taiwan needs LNG massively as well..both really needed for SEMIs. South Korea has a contract with Chernire $lng.
a much longer article came my way:
https://decouple.substack.com/p/ras-laffan-and-the-arctic-metagaz?utm_source=share&utm_medium=android&r=2p2bbm
looking forward to more on "theoretical optical global clock"
assume you are referring to this
https://www.nist.gov/atomic-clocks/how-atomic-clocks-work/optical-clocks-future-time
The table of contents title is negative regarding SMTC, so I'm curious why it's a long position.
Also the tariffs are structured to penalize countries running large trade surpluses with the U.S., they implicitly incentivize these nations to balance trade by importing U.S. energy. US gas is competitive even after shipping costs and switching costs are typically low especially if it's a sovereign buyer
You're looking for a quick buck on oil and gas; good luck with that. If you really want to invest in oil and gas, it's going to be long-term.
If Taiwan would run low on LNG, TSMC's fabs won't have assured power, which they need a lot of. If anyone here knows if TSMC operates it's own power plants, please let us know! Regardless, this current crisis means that prices for semiconductors will go up even more than they were already.
Issue for TSMC and other fabs is Helium. Lots of helium for making chips isn’t getting out of the strait. Not sure if there’s a ready alternative supplier from non-gulf region but that could be an interesting play if the situation doesn’t resolve itself soon.
At least theoretically, TSMC could be supplied with Helium by the US, which is still one of the major producers of this noble gas. What follows is complete speculation, I have no sources for it, but I wouldn't be surprised if that subject came up in TSMC’s recent conversations with Trump and his administration.
They can get helium. It's not expensive either. Neon gas is another one...it's actually not simple at all, nothing ever is. The risk is that we fall into a global recession due to energy shortages for various reasons impacting other countries. Seems like Asia could be brutally impacted which can trickle back elsewhere into other businesses that are dependent on them for goods. How's a SMB supposed to sell goods if Asian countries can't make them due to energy shortages? Comes back home to everyone everywhere.