iPhone 16e Teardown: $SITM maybe back, $QCOM out
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I have SiTime bags.
Am I going to waste $650 on a phone to find out if my $17K in unrealized losses about to go lower?
No.
Am I willing to spend $30 on new tools and waste an entire weekend in pursuit of this?
Yes.
A friend bought me an iPhone 16e and I have finished analysis.
Key Points:
I believe there is a 70% probability that SiTime is back in the iPhone via the RF/Modem/Connectivity board.
Past iPhones have one Quartz timer per board. (application processor PCB and connectivity PCB are sperate and sandwiched.
I have only managed to identify one Quartz timer.
Qorvo has gained share from Skyworks.
Qualcomm has **ZERO** content.
All RFFE components designed out.
Content loss per Apple C1 enabled iPhone is $25-30.
I have circled the Quartz timer for the apps PCB in blue. There is no such timer on the connectivity board.
Literally spent hours looking at these boards under a microscope. Ideally, I would have identified the SiTime chip. Instead, we have to settle for an apparent lack of Quartz on the connectivity board as circumstantial evidence of SiTime returning to the iPhone.
Also, the Apple modem is surprisingly good.
Geekerwan did incredible testing given they are armatures with limited equipment.
https://www.sharetechnote.com/html/5G/5G_RACH.html
RACH processing is shit. It’s fine. Firmware updates can fix this.
I am confident the Apple modem firmware team is on a death march to get this RACH problem fixed in time for the September full iPhone 17 launches.
Qualcomm is well aware of this.
Qualcomm themselves said their share with Apple could be as low as 20%.
Every sell-side model I have seen has 2025 Qualcomm share between 89% and 75%. This is wrong.
Share can go much lower. Apple has 6 months to fix RACH issues and crush Qualcomm with a surprize huge ramp in September.
Apple->Qualcomm bye! Broadcom bye!
Thanks! To me, this confirms that QC is pretty much out as a supplier for most of the coming generation of iPhones. Is the remaining % of iPhones with QC modems intended for Verizon and carriers in Japan ? Those are currently the main carriers with significant mmWave networks, which Apple's modem doesn't cover.