Gelsinger's Last Supper
Semiconductor Jesus has been crucified by ignorant board members and shareholders.
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On November 26th, 2024, Pat Gelsinger had his last supper.
A celebration of funding secured for his ambitious, heroic plan to save Intel and, by extension, American leading-edge semiconductor manufacturing.
Five days later, Gelsinger was crucified by idiot board members.
I have a long, detailed history of Intel from 2014-2024 sitting half-finished in my drafts folder. It’s titled “Gelsinger’s Odyssey” and themed after Homer’s Odyssey.
A detailed defense of Gelsinger will be published at some point. For now, let’s talk about what is next for Intel.
It’s not pretty.
Doug has an excellent write-up, including a detailed analysis of the (remarkably terrible) board of directors.
Most of his post is free and not paywalled. Stop reading this and go read his stuff first.
First, let’s be clear. Gelsinger was fired. The board had no plan. The interim co-CEO structure screams “what have no fucking plan”.
Who the hell would want to take this job? Clearly the board does not know which is why they hired some clown consultants.
The CEO you just fired is possibly the one person who is qualified and willing to do the job! He joined at 18 years old, went to engineering school with Intel benefits, and spent decades at the company as a technical contributor and manager.
This is something all of you need to understand.
Gelsinger was already rich before he came back to Intel to become CEO in 2021. This dude did not take the job for money. He came back to save the company.
Does Gelsinger have flaws? Of course! He was too kind and optimistic. Did not make the hard cuts that were needed until it was too late. Gave underperformers the benefit of the doubt. (looking at you Raja Koduri)
But make no mistake, Gelsinger was the right man for the job. Firing him is going to make things so much worse.
It’s over.
If corporations are people, then Intel has decided to commit suicide and sell its vital organs.
Before going over some possible outcomes, I want to give some friendly advice to the Intel employees reading this:
First, I am sorry this is happening to you.
Second….
Run.
A tsunami of decapitation (headcount reduction) is coming. However unpleasant the last several years has been… what is coming will be much worse.
This will be a disorderly decapitation frenzy. Nobody is safe.
Intel is actually on a path to bankruptcy. The board has no idea what to do. THERE IS NO PLAN ANYMORE. What comes next is a chaotic consultant-driven bloodbath.
Your performance reviews don’t matter.
It does not matter what team you are on.
Does not matter if you are a new grad or a long timer.
Nobody is safe. I am sorry to tell you that we have arrived at the darkest timeline.
Possible Outcomes:
GloFo but more painful.
Seppuku for Shareholderu
Lip-Bu Tan Cleanse by Fire
Hock Tan and Trump Bailout
Samsung Foundry Shotgun Marriage
[1] GloFo but more painful.
This has happened before. AMD was previously an IDM. Global Foundries is the spin-out of AMD’s old manufacturing.
It did not go well.
Both companies almost died. They were still linked together with a wafer supply agreement anyway. It took many years and epic failures from GloFo for AMD to finally break free and move to TSMC.
2025 Intel is in a much worse position than 2009 AMD.
The AMD/GloFo split was a disaster that took a decade to recover from.
If the clown board at Intel decides to spin-out the Fabs, it will be a disaster. History will repeat itself, but with excruciating pain.
[2] Seppuku for Shareholderu
Imagine a very sick person. (corporations are people after all)
One view is the patient should be saved as they can have several decades of economically productive workforce participation.
The other view is the patient should commit suicide and donate their vital organs to others.
Intel has brought dishonoru to the shareholderu and must commit seppuku.
Fire sale of assets.
[3] Lip-Bu Tan Cleanse by Fire
Reuters reported that Lib-Bu Tan resigned from the board back in August 2024 due to disagreements with Gelsinger.
Lip-Bu Tan is the former CEO of Cadence Design Systems, one of the two major EDA companies. If anyone understands customer-centric support for the foundry ecosystem, it’s him.
Frankly, the best outcome would be for the board to hire Lip-Bu Tan as CEO. He is the right man to do what Gelsinger wouldn’t out of kindness…
Slash and burn.
[4] Hock Tan and Trump Bailout
Hock Tan, the brutal private-equity style baron of technology is the right man to fix Intel Products.
He is absolutely the wrong person to run Intel Foundry.
In an ideal world, Hock Tan would convince Trump to support a bailout of Intel.
Broadcom gets Intel Design, guts them by 80%, and milks that meh asset to nothing.
Intel Foundry is spun out with government backed debt.
[5] Samsung Foundry Shotgun Marriage
What if two failing foundries with < 20% yield on smartphone-sized chips/chiplets merged?
There is an opportunity for two terrible corporate cultures to combine into a stupidity singularity.
I will leave you with this stock chart.
Pat’s firing actually makes me sad. I have never seen a CEO with true passion for a company that they didn’t found.
Seems like too much emphasis is placed on the quality of CEO. Quality of board members is also crucial. Especially in this case we had members that preside over the entire fiasco