Citrini 3/12/2026 Optics Basket Comments

Mostly correct.

• Irrational Analysis is heavily invested in the semiconductor industry.

  • Positions will change over time and are regularly updated.

• Opinions are authors own and do not represent past, present, and/or future employers.

• All content published on this newsletter is based on public information and independent research conducted since 2011.

• This newsletter is not financial advice and readers should always do their own research before investing in any security.

• Feel free to contact me via email at: irrational_analysis@proton.me

---

Citrini has a good optics post that is 80% correct.

Let There Be Light

[1] Correct: Aixtron

This is my fav optics-focused semicap. Pitched it to a hedge fund (you know who u are) months ago and they passed because “oh no china EV SiC”.

Up 45% on the (small) position. Trying to move more money into IBKR to increase exposure to foreign stocks because my government is retarded.

What Citrini wrote on Aixtron is 100% correct. Nothing to add other than this ticker should probably be the highest weight in his basket.

[2] Somewhat Correct: Furukawa

Most of his coverage is correct except for CPO.

Furukawa does not have ultra high-power DFB (300-400 mW) for CPO. 70 mW is not sufficient for any CPO application.

Blind-mate connectors and ferrule stuff sure. But not the ELS or lasers themselves.

Its amusing because the highlighted paragraph is completely wrong and you can immediately spot this by looking above at the datasheet screenshot lol.

Rest of Citrini coverage on this ticker is correct.

I want to buy into 5801.TT but Japan exchange requires buys in 100 share blocks and that translates to ~22K USD. Was busy buying other stuff.

[3] Correct: Nokia

6G is worthless. IDK why Citrini has been infected by wireless loser brain rot.

But the rest of Nokia (mostly Infinera) is great.

This is the only other 6-inch InP capacity in the world. Let’s see if they can yield more than photodiodes.

LOOKING AT YOU COHERENT.

Price/book is 1.8 so this is kinda a no-brainer. Lot of upside.

[4] Correct: Soitec

I have been on the fence for months with this one. But Citrini’s great coverage made me finally start buying. Want to buy a lot more TBH.

This is the paragraph that convinced me. Great stuff.

[5] Wrong: AAOI

I sold pre-market to take profit as soon as I read this. Not because it is correct, but because idiots are gona blindly sell or short.

Citrini’s negative view on AAOI is completely wrong.

1. They have internal CW laser capacity for transceivers.

2. Nvidia CPO has nothing to do with tranceiver volumes until 2029 at the earliest. In reality, Nvidia CPO ramping faster eats copper TAM…

Looking forward for chart to look good so I can buy back in.

[6] Completely Wrong: Himax

It’s amusing how Citrini and Hunterbrook interviewed a “former Lumentum engineer” who seems to not know what he talking about.

There is zero discussion on coupling efficiency, polarization extinction ratio, or alignment tolerance.

The most dangerous analysis looks smart (check out these patents!) but actually delivers zero insight into the underlying viability of the tech.

These micro-lense assemblies are obviously for grating coupler attach. Grating couplers have high loss compared to edge couplers so the lenses better be damn good. Zero evidence this is the case.

[7] Completely Wrong: Poet

I had to mute this ticker on Twitter because so many clowns ping me over this obviously bullshit company.

The moment I say something negative these losers come out of the woodwork.

Click on this dudes profile and surprise surprise he is a poet shill.

Poet is basically vaporware. The connection with Celestial is almost non-existent, especially because Celestial is moving to COUPE. Fucking Himax probably has higher probability of revenue from Celestial/Marvell than Poet.

Poet IR and marketing materials read like a trap for generalists who understand nothing about optics. Zoom in on their low-resolution plots and you will see it’s not log/dB scale. Linear scale. Back-calculate SMSR lol.

RIN? Linewidth? Lol nope.