Hello wonderful subscribers. (current and future)
What was your dream job?
Were you able to make that dream a reality?
A long time ago, it was my dream to be a chip designer, but that ship has sailed… er… sunk? … Maybe imploded is the most accurate description?
When stars of a certain mass die, they implode and create many of the universe’s heavy elements such as nickel, copper, silver, platinum, and gold.
Sometimes, death is necessary to create something new… and maybe better.
Since 2011, I have been obsessed with semiconductors and scoured the internet for information as a hobby. Over time, this obsession has grown from engineering/tech to include stocks/investing as well. This newsletter is an opportunity to share my hobby/obsession for fun by writing on my free time.
Someday (2035?), I might move earnings analysis (<10% of content) behind a paywall. For now, all posts will be free due to legal restrictions. All tech employers have a clause that prohibits making money off of side hustles that are relevant to the company’s primary business. As an engineer employed within the semiconductor industry, charging money for a paid newsletter about said industry is an excellent way to get fired real fast.
Also need to be careful about roasting any particular company too hard as that could be viewed as “defamatory”. Companies do business with each other in addition to competing with one another. Employees expressing strong opinions online can lead to problems… that get solved by firing the employee.
Many professional analysts (sell-side in particular) do not hold positions in the stocks they cover. It’s so much more fun when you have skin in the game and put your money where your mouth is.
This newsletter is called “Irrational Analysis” because my investment style can be best described as “insane hedge fund”. High-risk, high-reward, with a near total disregard for traditional investing metrics. Decisions are made with the following weights:
90% —> Technology roadmap aka Engineering-Driven Investment Analysis™
10% —> “Fundamentals”, financials, revenue, earnings, multiples, and so on…
Don’t let “fundamentals” weigh you down.
Note: Previously, 100% of decisions were based on technology roadmap but I got burned pretty badly by AMD’s client segment disintegrating in H2 2022.
If a stock drops by more than 5% in a day due to earnings, financial news, or other non-technology reasons, I typically buy more. It is on sale. My strategy only permits selling for two possible reasons:
The technology roadmap of <company> changes due to a catastrophic failure, fundamental market shift, and/or disruptive event from a competitor.
Typically liquidate 100% of the position.
Trim only in rare cases due to tax status.
I desperately need cash for real-life reasons.
Transparency is very important to me which is why I disclose every active position (long, options, short) on the ‘about page’. These disclosures will be periodically updated. Please keep in mind the following general disclosures that will always apply.
General Disclosures:
This newsletter is not financial advice.
You should always do your own research.
Content found here can be used as a starting point for your own research.
Opinions are authors own and do not reflect past/present/future employers.
Irrational Analysis may utilize public information to trade stocks and/or options at any time except when insider trading rules prevent doing so.
For example, trading options of <insert current employer here> is not allowed.
Trading any security based on any insider information is prohibited.
All content published on this newsletter is based on public information and independent research conducted since 2011.
The internet is a wonderful, big, diverse, open platform.
Think of me as a highly specialized flavor of ChatGPT.
I hope you find this newsletter worth your time.
-DS